Estimate the IRR, NPV, and multi-year unlevered after-tax cash flow of a hypothetical Venezuelan investment across oil & gas, mining, real estate, banking, agriculture, telecom, and tourism — with sector- specific EBITDA margins and Venezuela-specific risk premiums anchored to traded sovereign spreads and 2024–2025 EM sector benchmarks.
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Tax | Maint. capex | FCF | Disc. CF |
|---|
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The model projects a deterministic revenue / EBITDA schedule using the sector defaults you can override, applies the chosen tax rate to EBITDA to approximate operating cash taxes, deducts maintenance capex as a percent of revenue, then applies an exit multiple to terminal-year EBITDA. Every cash flow is discounted at your USD WACC plus a sector-specific Venezuela risk premium. The result is an order-of-magnitude estimate suitable for first-round filtering — not a substitute for a fully diligenced model with project-finance structuring, FX repatriation friction, working-capital movements, and country-of-origin tax.
FCF formula used: FCF = EBITDA × (1 − tax) − maintenance capex.
Terminal year adds exit multiple × terminal EBITDA on top.
Defaults reflect 2024–2025 EM-comparable benchmarks, adjusted to a recovery / partial-normalisation scenario for Venezuela. Risk premiums are anchored to traded Venezuelan sovereign-debt spreads — Venezuela's restructured external bonds remain among the highest-yielding sovereign instruments globally — and adjusted up or down by sector based on sanctions exposure, foreign-investor dispute history, and convertibility friction. See the pillar guide for the full methodology.
| Sector | EBITDA margin | Rev. growth | VE risk premium | Reference comp set |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oil & Gas (upstream) | 40% | 8% | 18% | Latin American IOCs / NOCs at Brent $65–75; lifting cost < $25/bbl. Sanctions risk dominates the premium. |
| Mining (gold-led) | 38% | 10% | 16% | Major gold producers' all-in EBITDA margins at gold $2,400–2,700/oz (Newmont, Barrick, AngloGold). Reduced for VE artisanal mix. |
| Real Estate (commercial) | 55% | 6% | 12% | EM commercial NOI margins of 60–70%, reduced ~10pts for vacancy and Caracas operating overhead. Growth = inflation-linked rent escalators. |
| Banking & Financial Services | 35% | 12% | 17% | Pre-tax operating margin (net interest + fees as "revenue"). Comps: EM banks with NIM 4–6%. Sanctions-exposed correspondent banking is the binding risk. |
| Agriculture | 18% | 7% | 10% | Domestic-market crop & protein producers; commodity-cycle exposed. Lowest premium because least sanctions-exposed. |
| Telecom & Digital | 38% | 9% | 13% | EM mobile operators (América Móvil, MTN, Telefónica LatAm) typically run 35–45% EBITDA margins. |
| Tourism & Hospitality | 28% | 12% | 11% | Branded EM hotels typically run 25–35% EBITDA margins. Higher growth reflects recovery upside off a low base. |
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